us presidential election 2024: Kamala Harris making huge gains in Rust Belt states, says poll

If media reports and opinion polls are to be believed, Kamala Harris is gaining ground in the Rust Belt. The states that were once the US manufacturing centers, employing a large part of the population in manufacturing jobs, voted heavily in favor of Donald Trump in 2016. But, Axios has reported that Kamala Harris has closed the gap in the region comprising Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Harris’s increased popularity is in contrast to FiveThirtyEight’s national average when Joe Biden trailed Donald Trump by 2.4 percentage points in Michigan, 2.3 percentage points in Wisconsin, and 4.4 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

Kamala Harris has lead over Donald Trump in Rust Belt

In a poll conducted by New York Times/Siena College, Kamala Harris was found to lead Donald Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan among likely voters in the states.

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What has Nate Silver found?

Separately, in his election model, pollster Nate Silver found the vice president up by 3.8 percentage points in Michigan. She was leading by 3.6 percentage points in Wisconsin and 1.9 in Pennsylvania. Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, also found Kamala Harris up in Michigan by 3.3 percentage points; 3.3 percentage points in Wisconsin; and 1.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

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These findings are significant because in 2016, polling underestimated Donald Trump by nine percentage points in polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2020, he was underestimated by five points in these states compared to the final votes.

FAQs

What is the Rust Belt?
Rust Belt is the area comprising of states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. It was once the manufacturing hub of the US. Why the Rust Belt is important for Kamala Harris?
In a poll conducted by New York Times/Siena College, Kamala Harris was found to lead Donald Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan among likely voters in the states.